Hillary et al

My impression of Hillary Clinton's historic speech last night was not as reflexively rhapsodic as Keith Olbermann's, though I do think she hit the proper notes and did it more or less sincerely. (Note to Keith: a little less fawning, a little more analysis; though I agree with your sentiments, you are losing your journalistic credibility with your unvarnished favoritism).

This was a very well-crafted speech. I believe that much of the text had been preconceived, for except for the shoehorning of Barack's name, it well could have been an acceptance speech--and is certainly a template if the occasion ever arises again for Hillary, which is a 50/50 possibility. She started tentatively, and her first endorsement of Obama was almost begrudging, as she did not lift her voice and turned her head a bit askance. But buoyed by the swooning of her supporters and the import of the moment, she built momentum, and had spellbinding flourishes at the end. I am not a fan of the rather lame "No way, no how, no McCain" mantra. The Twin Cities remark was appropriate, although it seemed that apart from yoking McCain to Bushonomics, she followed the pattern of most speeches so far in not raking the old guy over the coals. Please, Bill and Joe, in your talks today, start the attack. It's not as though a polite Democratic Convention is going to deter the Republicans from amping up the smear campaign. It will just encourage them more.

What her delivery lacked were real specifics about Obama. Besides being the apparent standard-bearer there were no other clear reasons given to vote for him. All right, his record is rather skimpy, but she could have given him more credit beyond his humble beginnings. Perhaps she could have mentioned how his charisma galvanized people and reintroduced so many cynics into the political system. Or would that have offended her adherents? And she also could have been more precise about the problems that would ensue in a McCain presidency, especially regarding the Supreme Court and the threat to Roe v. Wade. Unless I missed it. That would have provided a compelling argument to those bad-sport gals who need to be shaken up a little as to their right to choose.

By speaking in shimmering generalities, Hillary saved herself for the future, which is all she could realistically salvage, though as I watched her beaming daughter I began to wonder if Chelsea would be entering the fray and be a major National political figure in the 2020s, perhaps accomplishing what her mother could not.

There was another standout moment last night, and it was not the Keynote address by Mark Warner, an instantly forgettable bit of blather that did little to enhance his national profile, as it had for previous stars like Obama and Clinton. His voice was reedy, and he did not fare well in HiDef. Nor did he say anything to rouse the convention. However, he was followed by the unheralded governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, who did precisely what was needed.

Had his not been the warm-up act for Hillary's address, it would have been the evening's most memorable moment. In his unbuttoned, cowboyesque mien, he was the epitome of the independent Republican stalwart--oops, but he's a Democrat. And a homey one. And a funny one. And his approachability was just the ticket for winning over independent voters, which is why he was able to win in the traditionally Republican state he now guides.

Watch out for this guy. He has the appeal to draw a huge part of Middle America into the fold, if given the right seasoning and the proper exposure. He could well be a future Vice Presidential candidate, although he, like Biden, is unlikely to contribute a lot of Electoral help. But if the electorate, in their infinite wisdom, decided to vote for Bush because he's the one they'd most likely enjoy sharing a beer with, they would surely enjoy attending a chuckwagon feast hosted by Schweitzer. And he could even provide the beef.

Idiot's Delight

A close friend recently called to ask if I had DVRed the "town meeting" last weekend among the Presidential candidates Obama and McCain and the Evangelist Reverend Rick Warren, author of "The Purpose-Driven Life," the most anti-existential of titles. She was surprised when I said I hadn't and I was equally surprised at her reaction. She knew well that I am an atheist. As I explaiend to her, "You already have two politicians primed to bullshit, and their subject matter is total bullshit, so there would be two guys bullshitting about bullshit." Okay, it may work for Penn and Teller, but for me it would have been terribly dismaying.

Not nearly as dismaying, I'd say, as the latest Zogby poll, released today, which for the first time has McCain in a popular-vote lead, and not by the smallest margin. Obama is losing ground and McCain gaining traction. To put it mildly, what the fuck is going on?

The hopeful apologist in me can cite a few recent events that have probably helped gravitate more people toward the Republican, not the least of which is the aforementioned religious confab. It was on McCain's home turf, and he provided the masses with the proper straightforward sound bytes, as in his response to Warren's question as to"when life begins in the womb." McCain responded, knee-jerkedly, "At the moment of conception," an answer he would never have provided when he was the "Maverick," but now must blurt out as rehearsed. Big applause, of course. And when Obama responded with a sensible, humble and quasi-scientific answer "that knowledge is beyond my pay grade," he satisfied no one with the nuance or thoughtfulness, except to thoughtful persons who would be voting for him anyway. Sorry, Barack, you don't win over converts with intellectual verbiage. As my friend, after viewing the discussion later said to me, "It's like Adlai Stevenson all over again." And she may be right.

Then there are the ongoing International events of 1) the Olympics and 2) blatant Russian aggression against a neighboring democracy. The first event, with all the red white and blue jingoistic coverage, could work subtly to rev up the viewers' patriotism, and who is more of a symbol of American heroism than John McCain? Okay, Michael Phelps maybe, but he is only 23 and a geek. And when Russia violated every historical precedent by waging war during the Olympic games--something Sparta and Athens would never have done--it also dredged up Cold War fears and our insecurity, which called for a Daddy figure to protect us. An Eisenhower or a Reagan, please. The Old Soldier, McCain, closely fits that bill. Forget that Obama would be the choice of about 90% of the people who filled the Bird's Nest for the Opening Ceremonies. Who needs a citizen of the 21st Century world when we have that reliable relic of our 19th Century military imperialism?

In addition, there is the latest hatchet job by Jerome Corsi, a pack of lies called "The Obama Nation" (not a bad title, as puns go), whose credibility and cachet was supported by its leading the New York Times book list. It did so because of the bulk purchasing by right-wing organizations, but even the little bullet on the list that indicates that was hardly noticed. Hmm, says the gullible idiot in Ohio or Virginia who is impressed by superficial numbers. Maybe Obama is a radical Muslim after all. Enough may have been affected by the slanderous ad hominem attacks against Obama that the tide has turned. It worked for the Swift Boaters, why not again? Swift boating may have become the common metaphor for campaign slime, but it not only got us for more years of W, but its prime 2004 benefactor, T. Boone Pickens, is now an environmentalist hero. So much for bad karma.

Even the price of gas is militating toward a greater appreciation of McCain. Now that it has retreated (thanks to the normal give-and-take of supply and demand), the simpleminded American public may be starting to associate his demands for more drilling as the impetus for price reduction.

Obama was of on vacation and his reactions to the Corsi book and the Russian invasion have been muted, so that has not worked in his favor either. But he is about to leap back onto center stage with the first big preliminary coming momentarily, the announcement of his veep pick. And then the big show next week in Denver, culminating in his stadium oration, which could be a make or break moment for him, if he can rouse the sleeping voters with some great populist oratory. I am less capable a political forecaster than a baseball prognosticator, but it stills seems likely that he will chose a running mate with foreign policy gravitas to counter McCain's, and one who can be an effective hatchet man while Obama walks the more dignified path. All the pundits say that person is Joe Biden, and I'd agree.

But if Obama is courageous and pragmatic, and leery of his inability to grow in the esteem of the voting public, he might pull out the stops and go for Hillary. That would still be his best shot to galvanize all the democrats, and to win.

The Mole and I

Of course, as the Nielsens have recently shown, a large chunk of Americans and most of the world has been enthralled by the opening moments of the Olympics game. I must admit to a certain thrill watching--live, as far as I was concerned--the men's relay race that would determine if Phelps could sweep eight golds. But my biggest thrill this week came from a totally different competition, whose ratings complemented those of the Olympics (as in very good complements very bad).

This was the finale of "The Mole." If there were no DVRs, it may never have been viewed by anyone, its ratings are so dismal. But I've always enjoyed it, because it was the only cerebral reality show out there. It's the anti-"Big Brother." And I had registered my choice for the Mole, as in past seasons, halfway through the proceedings, and each season discovered my choice was correct. So when it was revealed that the Jolly Fat Guy Craig indeed was the Mole, I jumped out of my seat in triumph. It was the smuggest self-satisfaction I'd felt since I predicted the Aaron Boone pennant-winner against the Red Sox in 2003.

It saddens me that "The Mole" has so few adherents, but its very nature as an intellectual and psychological challenge makes it appeal only to a niche audience. To paraphrase P.T. Barnum, people have gone broke overestimating the public. But I'm certain that if its audience was polled, it would skew very heavily to Obama in the presidential race. The candidate who appeals to the college-educated, to those who appreciate subtlety and nuance and clearheadedness rather than blather. I bet most of the people who watch "Wipeout" are in it for McCain.

I have also been discouraged by how the less-educated can be counted upon to leap to inane Republican propaganda. As I watch the McCain Olympics commercials, they are nothing but slander (insinuating that Obama is a demagogue because of the adoring Evita-like crowds), fabricating a falsehood about Obama's tax plans, and then they devolve into inane platitudes like "McCain is for renewable energy." Well, duh.

Duh is what the Republicans are counting on. I'm sure I've mentioned this somewhere in the 250 posts in this Blogopus, but the first personally realized truism I ever stumbled upon was that you can never try to overcome stupidity, you just have to learn to take advantage of it. I probably knew that even before Karl Rove. The Obama ads are straightforward and thoughtful, laying out clearly many of his programs, without any of the personal sniping that befouls the McCain spots.
But appealing to the intelligent is, in Obama's case, preaching to the choir.

Remember the Democratic primary campaign, whose demographics clearly showed that the most educated sided with Obama, the less-so with Hillary? Despite her privilege, Hillary managed to appeal more to the uneducated because Obama's intelligence (and of course, his race) were off-putting to the ignorant. Obama needs to grab some of this constituency, which means tapping into their dumbness. Hence he is backing off his opposition to the simple-minded and feckless off-shore drilling impetus proposed by McCain, and his fellow Dems have been forced to follow suit. (Frankly I am not so dead opposed to this plan either, but recognize that it is a drop in the bucket and will have next to no effect in lowering gas prices).

Whatever it takes, Barack. If putting on a clown suit and shuffling during the debates will win it for you, by all means go for it. Whatever makes the stupid voter like you better.