Wait Till Last Year--Baseball Blog

First of all I want to thank faithful reader Terry for your quick and thoughtful review of "Yo, Tyrania." Just as you appreciated my book on several levels, so did I appreciate your review. It was quite well-written itself, and you really seemed to grok (another arcane reference) what I was trying to accomplish. Almost scarily so--I never mentioned the nod to "The King and I," which you perceived, along with the debt to "Animal Farm" That was my original model, as each of the Tyranians was meant to reflect an aspect of society, like Orwell's characters. A major Foo-DUM to you! And if you ever want to e-mail chat, press the link on my "Yo,Tyrania" website.

As for the Academy Awards, they were dull, dull dull. Bad songs, wasted jokes, boring winners. So, moving on to the fun about to engulf us--the new baseball season.

I've been doing my prepping for Rotisserie season, intending to enter three different leagues with different rules. So I've done my homework and now sense the strengths and weaknesses of the teams. My blog title reference is of course to the cry of the old Brooklyn Dodgers, who classically had to "Wait till next year" until they finally triumphed in 1955. In my case it recalls last year, when my fave team the Yankees recaptured the title after nearly a decade of frustration. So with the monkey off that back--and Arod's as well--I can relax and always revisit their 2009 World Series win (alive on my DVR) while they stumble to a third-place finish in their division this year.

My pessimism is based on their advancing age. Neither Posada nor Jeter nor Pettitte should expect to perform nearly as well as they did in 2009 (Rivera may still do so, but he is supernatural). Plus the Yanks were quite lucky in the injury department, and that's not likely to recur this year. Their competitors, the Red Sox and Rays, are still formidable and a small shift in injury luck, especially among the strong starting staffs of each team, ought to make the difference. The Sox have the best staff but their offense took a hit with the departure of Bay. The Rays have a great corps of young hitters--Crawford, Longoria, Zobrist, Bartlett, Sean Rodriguez, and if he wakes up, B.J. Upton. The most important player in the division is their closer, Rafael Soriano. Relief is where they fell off last year. I predict a second place finish and a Wild Card for the Jays, with Boston pitching prevailing. The Orioles have some good home-grown talent but no pitching beyond Brian Matusz, and Toronto is simply overmatched.

In the AL Central, the race seems to be between the White Sox and the Twins, though the Twins took a big hit with closer Joe Nathan going down. They have the best offense but need to avoid their typical early-season swoon. Chicago could advance if Jack Peavy can solve the American League. The Tigers will be competitive, though it will be a while before Austin Jackson outperforms Curtis Granderson. The Indians are still rebuilding and Kansas City is Kansas City, though their mound corps is impressive.

The AL West should probably offer an alternative to the Angels this year, whose loss of Figgins and Lackey will likely prove fatal as their opposition strengthens. The Rangers' line-up is awesome, but can Rich Harden and Scotty Feldman really last through the summer? Look for super phenom Neftali Perez to become vital to their cause. The Mariners are certainly in the mix, with the starting one-two punch of King Felix and Cliff Lee, but I think the latter may be a disappointment, and they are short of power. Oakland is something of a mystery team, with some good anonymous young hurlers (Gio Gonzalez anyone?), but doesn't have enough to really compete. My pick is Texas, though they won't advance very far beyond early October.

The Phils are still the class of the National League, though I anticipate a show-down this year between them and the Cardinals. Post-season the Phils majorly improved themselves, replacing Lee with Halladay and Pedro Feliz with Placido Polanco. They won't get the same year from Raul Ibanez but they won't need it. Only a relief corps in flux could stop them from another title, though the Braves are on the move with a smartly rebuilt squad and some great pitching. If Tim Hudson rteturns to form, and Tommy Hanson retains his, it will be a terrific race. The Marlins can't be discounted but don't have the depth of either Philadelphia or Atlanta. The Mets are not likely to be as laughably hospital-prone as last season, but they don't have a strong staff behind Johan Santana and still have two major hitters--Reyes and Beltran--limping to the starting gate. And of Washington, well, Strasbourg or not, I defer to the old cliche--First in war, First in peace, Last in the National League.

It's hard to bet against St. Louis,with that Pujols/Holiday combo, in the otherwise competitive NL Central, though they are very dependent on starters Carpenter and Wainwright, and should one stumble, they could fall to a resurgent Cubs team or a Reds squad with much improved pitching. The Brewers have that wonderful offense but even worse hurling than last year. It's Gallardo and then pretty much Turd Time. Neither Pittsburgh nor Houston can field a squad to overtake the Cardinals, though the Pirates do seem to be able to produce some young studs like Andrew McCutcheon and Garrett Jones.

Although many pundits are discounting the Dodgers for a three-peat in the division, I think they will be in the horse race. They still have a sound offense, and if Furcal can set the table, they have Kemp, Ethier and Manny to drive in the runs. If Kershaw and Billingsley can last the full season they have as good a chance as any other in this very close division. The consensus choice for the title is fast-closing Colorado, and their pitching staff, with Jimenez and De La Rosa, may be enough. But can Tulowitsky repeat his sensational 2009, and when will Todd Helton collapse? Stay tuned. The Giants have that great starting staff but little line-up support for their one great hitter Pablo Sandoval. But my actual choice for the title is Arizona, whose young offense, led by Justin Upton and Chris Young, may gel offensively, and whose mound corps may be sufficient--especially if Brandon Webb can return to full strength.

So my NL picks are the Phils, Cardinals, Diamondbacks and the Dodgers as Wild Card to join the Al leaders Boston, Minnesota, Texas and Tampa Bay. And I project a World Sereis of Boston vs. Philadelphia, with the Phils recapturing the top trophy.