Oops

Now I know (a little ) of the cognitive dissonance George W. Bush experiences every time he confronts the fact that his cock-sure foreign policy has become an unmitigated disaster. Just as Bushie has been characterized in a recent bio as "Dead Certain," I was dead certain the Mets were going to win the World Series. Well I was certain, and now they are dead (as is my Vegas bet).

Que pesa in Shea? Such an awful collapse, and I was so glad I wasn't a Mets fan. It was almost as bad as the Yanks' four-game collapse to the Red Sox in 2004, the Yanks' disaster being magnified by the Rivalry. The worst since the Phils of 1964, which I actually remember. So they take the stink away from the Bronx, where the Yanks were figuratively and literally rejuvenated and fought their way into the play-offs as a Wild Card, thanks in part to Detroit's awful bullpen.

The other division winner in the AL were predictable but not shoo-ins. Cleveland was the Central team to put it together this season (and I regret not listening to my impulse to bet on them for the pennant). The Angels are brilliantly managed, and the Red Sox still have strong starting pitching, though their relief corps is fading in the fall.

The National League has the Phils winning over the Mets in the East (kind of as I'd predicted, but not as melodramatically). The Cubs' pitching was enough to overcome the Brewers in what seems a division in transition. And (hello Terry), the Diamondbacks did resist the lame charge of the Padres, who couldn't even hold two late leads with Relief God Trevor Hoffman set to perform his magic.

Interestingly, the Colorado "tiebreaker" win over the Padres is likely to be the most exciting of all the post-season games. It was really a classic, and accidentally posited that randomness can present evenhanded results. The Rockies lost a run to a bad call by an umpire who missed that the homer had bounced back from beyond the fence. Later, in the 13th inning, when Matt Holiday tried to score the winning run, he was blocked by Mike Barrett and never touched the plate; the umpire hesitantly ruled him safe, less out of conviction than probably having to go to the bathroom really bad.

SIDEBAR: For those who care, the fate of my Rotisserie team--the Bronx Cheers--lay in that final game. After a season of bouncing back and forth with The Order, our competition, we were a half-point in second place with the season going into overtime. With a combination of circumstances such as a bad Peavy pitching performance, a lot of hitting by our side, a stolen base and absolutely NO RUNS TO BE SCORED BY YORVIT TORREALBA (of The Order), it all turned to sudden shit in the second inning when Torrealba lined a homer, scoring the run that gave The Order an insurmountable lead. Oh well--at least, with the pressure off--and our players never did get that stolen base--I was able to enjoy a great ball game fantasy-free.

So whither the play-offs? Recent history has shown that the Wild Card teams have tended to be on the hottest runs late in the season (especially Colorado, winners of 14 out of 15), and are more finely tuned than teams who have run out the string. From that logic one could predict a Yankee-Colorado series, which if nothing else could set a lot of offensive records. There are many other attractive match-ups possible, four of which include The Cubs. Cubs--Red Sox, Cubs-Indians, Cubs-Angels and Cubs-Yankees would all be charming. Likewise the match-ups that would include the Phils. There is something wholesome about old-time franchises competing as though it were pre-1960 (okay, not the Angels, but they were 1961).

The Diamondbacks are not a flashy team but have won the Series more recently than the Yanks, and a Yankee-Diamondback rematch of that great and tragic (it was 2001!) affair could be intriguing. Or perhaps Schilling of the Red Sox can try to beat his old Arizona fans. It is really impossible to use rational means to predict a winner of the tournament, since it has been really flakey recently, with last year's winning Cardinals going in with the lamest record, and performing this season equally poorly.

I find it interesting to note, as a Yankee fan, that of all the teams that participated in the 2006 play-offs, only one returned the following season. The Yankees. Which won't get them the title, as I predict, but will get them far enough this year to give Arod a chance to shine in the spotlight and undo his entire trash image.

My choice for the whole shebang? With TOTAL UNCERTAINTY, I pick the Phillies.