Beware

Okay, pretty irrelevant Ides of March reference; there's enough to be wary of, anyway--who needs to be reminded? But in a lighter vein, as reader Terry reminded me, there is baseball out there, lurking as the Next Big Act after the NCAA's March Madness wears down. The NCAAs are fun, I suppose, even though the team that I always root for, perennial Ivy Champ Penn, almost always succumbs in the first round. They are likely to do that again this year, facing Regional second seed Texas on Friday night.

The World Baseball Classic has rolled into its second round, trying to winnow down to its final four, one of which seems not likely to be the USA. "Our" team, the one with Jeter, Clemens, Derrek Lee, Griffey, Arod, Chipper, Texeira and Young, is about to be eliminated unless, under the byzantine rules, Korea beats Japan or scores more than eight runs losing to them. In fact, the Yanks (as opposed to the Yankees) would have been toast already but for an outrageously bad call in the game against Japan, where a Nipponese baserunner was called out for leaving too early on a sacrifice fly. Horseshit, the replay suggested. This awful ruling was perhaps not as bad as Don Denkinger's in 1985 or the replay overturn of the interception in this year's Pittsburgh-Indianapolis playoff game, but it was very suspect. On the upside, if the USA gets bounced, all those Yankees will return to Tampa. For Steinbrenner, though, his worst fears have been realized, as Johnny Damon has already injured his shoulder, which was not his greatest asset in the first place.

This time of year is important, MLB and Fantasy-wise, for the evaluation of talent. This has become impossible with the allocation of so many veterans to their temporary WBC assignments. Meanwhile talented young players like Ryan Howard and Edwin Encarnarcion are burning up the Florida camps with massive offensive outbursts which could be misleading because they are pounding mostly minor league level hurlers, or major leaguers still experimenting with new pitches. However, I do believe the aforementined sluggers can be responsible for 60-70 dingers between them this season, health-willing.

I am currently in the midst of poring over lists and websites, trying to ascertain the best position players and the players mot likely to exceed their purchase value in the upcoming Rotisserie auction. Part of the process involves relearning team rosters, and while not pertinent to Fantasy concerns, trying to ascertain which MLB teams are going to improve this year. All off-season moves are geared to improvement, of course, and almost all the rosters seem stronger, with the possible exceptions of Boston, Baltimore, the Cubs, St. Louis, and San Diego. Since three of those teams were playoff participants in 2005, this bodes for some change in October. Teams whose chances seem stronger to see post-season play include the Mets, the Phillies, Milwaukee (though they need a solid fourth starter), Texas and Oakland. The A's pitching staff could be fabulous again, with Barry Zito the least promising of a strong bunch including Harden, Haren and Blanton.

I love the Mets' offense, though it needs help from Kaz Matsui, one of the few really disappointing Japanese exports. With Reyes and Matsui setting the table for Floyd, Beldtran, Delgado, Wright and LoDuca, and a tandem of young sluggers Nady and Diaz hanging out, all they need are some useful seasons from veterans Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, and especially Billy Wagner, to win 95 games. Likewise, the Phillies, sporting Rollins, Abreu, Utley, Howard and Burrell, are going to score a lot of runs, though their veteran staff does not inspire great confidence. The Braves have some good youngsters, but without pitching coach Leo Mazzone, their pitching may not pull out a fifteenth Division Championship in a row. The Marlins are rebooting with all those youngsters they traded for, whch means they'll probably win the World Series in 2008--but not this year. Poor Joe Girardi. The Nationals are a melange of players who have seen better days, like gimps Jose Guillen and Nicky Johnson, Jose Vidro and the recalicitrant Alfonso Soriano, and won't make the noise this season that they did last.

I guess I'm in Preview mode now, so I'll continue my early evaluations in the next blog.