A Month of Sundays

February, normally a dour, frigid month, is shaping up as a festival of Big Events just made for Hi Def party-mode viewing. This weekend promises the Super Bowl hoopla, and I will be able to see every crag in Mick Jagger's face during his half-time performance. I will need the visual delights to carry me through most of the four-hour event, since I have zero rooting interest and am too chicken to log onto Internet sports-betting sites. Sports fans can then hair-of-the-dog recover from Super Bowl hangover by indulging in two weeks of Winter Olympics, during which the word "mogul" means something different than an asshole defendant in the current Enron trial.

Then, quickly ensuing, is the annual Oscar fest, my local Brouhaha, with the stars, the outfits, the helicopters and the security nightmares, all just down the street. I don't have much rooting interest herein, not because of indifference but because I like most of the nominees. Not to toot my own trumpet, but my prognostications from last week were on the money. In a pretty easy field to handicap, I was correct in four of the five Best Picture nominees, and my #6, "Good Night and Good Luck," edged out my #5, the Johnny Cash flick. In retrospect this was not surprising during these politically charged months. Hollywood cannot elect a President but it can make a point, and this year, it is thoughtful humanism that wins out over heartless spectacle.

I'm not kvetching about the nominees I missed. The fifth Best Actor slot went to Terence Howard. I didnt see "Hustle and Flow," though his reviews were glowing. He was very impressive in "Crash," however, as was its only acting nominee, Matt Dillon, who was the only "featured" actor in that stellar ensemble to be cited. Dillon is an actor of limited range but pulled out the stops with this stressed-out, well-written role. He will not win--that honor is likely to go to the the character actor's nonpareil, Paul Giamatti. The Academy will do penance for "snubbing" him as Best Actor in "Sideways" and "American Splendor." I missed a few of the actress nominees, totally forgetting Charlize Theron and her summer release "North Country," which also featured former Oscar winner Frances McDormand. Either Felicity Huffman or Reese Witherspoon will win Best Actress, with the advantage to Felicity for genderbending and the guts to look really awful on the screen, like Charlize in "Monster."

Best Supporting Actress probably goes to Michelle Williams, who may be the only "Brokeback" cast member to win. Rachel Weisz and Amy Adams have their fans, and Catherine Keener is a popular "professional" who will win one day but whose role was probably not showy enough. This is really a very competitive race. Philip Seymour Hoffman is almost a certainty as "Capote," however brilliant his fellow nominees were. Only a groundswell for "Brokeback" might sweep Heath Ledger in, but "Brokeback" will do well anyway. It will win Best Picture, Best Director and probably for Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography. "Capote" could take more than one Oscar, if Keener wins or if it triumphs in the strong Original Screenplay division. But I'd like to see "Crash" recognized in the latter category becuase it won't win elsewhere, and is too deserving to be shut out. A few technical nods to "King Kong" would be fitting, though Peter Jackson is probably still sore from toting his 13 Oscars, or whatever, for "Return of the King."

A final prediction--two days after the Awards show, all the winners, save for the Best Picture, will be largely forgotten. But who cares, we'll be heading into the baseball season. Or actually involved in one, the so-called "World Baseball Classic," slated for much of March, during which Major League players will do their best to win under arbitrarily determined national banners while trying to avoid straining their hamstrings. Which should engage the ESPNers until the Final Four tournament. Connecticut seems the favorite there, but I'm sure we'll forget UConn too a couple of days afterward. Sic semper gloria.