Educated Guesses

An interested relative, impressed by my dead-on predictions concerning Aaron Boone and "24" ex-President David Palmer, has posited that perhaps I am psychic. No such luck, honey. I believe I have had one unusually prescient dream that could border on the psychic and that was nearly forty years ago. (I dreamt my college basketball team--a national power--would battle another local team later that season, even though they were not scheduled to meet, and would lose in an incredible rout; and that's exactly what transpired, 90-47).

I don't totally disbelieve in psychic phenomena, given the untapped, mysterious capacity of our brains and the possibility that there are eleven dimensions wrapping around each other and doing all sorts of mischief, but my skepticism is more persuasive. I do believe, however, in the ability to make educated guesses based on experience and knowledge in a particular field. Aaron Boone was primed to do well because he was unheralded and underrated and a pitcher might lose concentration when facing him, as Tom Wakefield did in 2003. Palmer was a Dead Duck as soon as he signed a contract for another show.

I usually employ a similar skill in forecasting the winners of Hollywood awards. I've won my share of Oscar pools thanks to insight into not only the quality of films but the emotions with which the Academy voters make their choices, as well as past patterns of selections. At this juncture of the Oscar season, with the preliminary votes in and the nominees to be announced on Tuesday, I feel the urge to predict again. At this juncture I have screened all the prestige films with the exceptions of "Walk the Line" and "The New World," so I feel suitably prepared to speculate about the nominations.

"Brokeback Mountain" is the shooest of the shoo-ins, and the likely winner. It has a breakthrough story line, is very well-scripted, acted and shot, and has been ignored by cultural yahoo President Bush, which makes it even more lovable to Hollywood. The other nominees will be, in descending order of likelihood, "Crash," "Munich," "Capote" and "Walk the Line." I include "Walk the Line" because it is the only prestige film tht doesn't leave you craving a stiff drink or a Zoloft, and reportedly has two very fine performances. Films that could sneak into the top five are "Good Night and Good Luck," "Syriana" and "King Kong." I'd like to see "A History of Violence" get recognized, but it may be a little too unsavory for the mainstream. This is a film so forthright and uncompromising that when a little girl gets targeted by a villain, he actually blows her away.

The strongest category this year will be Best Actor, and although Heath Ledger, Joaquin Phoenix and David Straithairn all acquitted themselves excellently, no one soared like Phillip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote." I will be stunned if he does not win, although a split vote among all the biographical renditions may pave the way for Ledger. The fifth actor will be interesting, perhaps Vigo Mortenson for "A History of Violence" Best Actress is rather weak this year, lacking a Meryl Streep or or Julianne Moore. Felicity Huffman is the odds-on here, with Reese Witherspoon a second choice. There will be some sentiment going to Naomi Watts for "King Kong" and perennial Judy Dench for the larky role of Mrs. Henderson. But Huffman, whose transsexual characterization never seems strained or overwrought, has amassed all the historical elements for a win--unrecognizable appearance, convincing transgender (the Swank effect), and popular national sentiment owing to her TV career (the Helen Hunt effect). Either Gwyneth Paltrow in "Proof" and Tilda Swinton in "Narnia" may make the slate as well.

Best director will almost certainly go to Ang Lee, popular and courageous (and he deserves it for the performances he wrenches out of his young actors). Spielberg, Peter Jackson, maybe Paul Haggis and possibly George Clooney will earn their gift bags. Clooney will likely get nominated for his role in "Syriana," though it will be more likely if it is a featured role. Likewise, Ralph Fiennes, who had a very active year, could sneak in a Best Actor nod for"Constant Gardner" or even for his supporting role as Voldemort in "Harry Potter." His co-star in "Gardner," Rachel Weisz, is likely for Supporting, as is Catherine Keener in "Capote." "Brokeback" will also be represented by much of its cast, including Michelle Williams and probably Ledger's boy toy Jake Gyllenhall, positioned smartly though inappropriately by that film's producers as a featured actor. There's a lot of buzz over an actress in "Junebug," Amy Adams, but few have actually seen this indie, including myself.

I've more to say later, including my perosnal capsule reviews and personal picks, but that will wait until after I can gloat from the accuracy of my 28-year Hollywood insight.