Beware Again

The National League will probably have a different champion again this year, and the only team I see likely to return to the post-season is the Cardinals. That will be on the strength of their pitching--thanks to coach Dave Duncan--and whatever muscle Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds bring to the batting order. The latter two, however are on the downside of their careers. My fun choice for long-odds pennant money goes to Milwaukee (if I can get to Vegas in time). They have three solid starters in Sheets, Capuano and Davis, and a young core of hitters led by Clark, Richie Weeks and Prince Fielder (who will hit 40 HRs soon enough, if not now). The Astros will not likely be as lucky as last year without a full season from Clemens, who's currently a free agent. Will Pettite stay healthy all year to complement Oswalt and Bakke? Doubtful. Same with Biggio and Bagwell. The Cubs had their pre-Steve Bartman shot and now all their star hurlers and crumbling like bleu cheese. As for Pittsburgh, it's Jason Bay and go away.

San Diego's pitching may carry them through to another Divisional title, but their team is really no better than the Dodgers, who can make a run if their offense is more fortunate with its health than last year. Adding Furcal at the top of the line-up may help produce enough runs to make the difference, and Gagne could return to full strength. I project them a slight upset favorite over the underrated Giants, who have some good young pitching in Matt Cain and Noah Lowry, who will be more famous in September. One hopes Barry Bonds contributes enough to keep them competitive without threatening Aaron's lifetime homer record, because that will be a very ugly business. The Rockies will be where they always are (either Denver or on the road), but sans Larry Walker won't be a major factor.

Ergo my NL post-season picks are the Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets and wild-card Braves (who will win their divisional opponents in front of 25,000 yawning fans in Atlanta).

The American League East is stronger this year than last, though Baltimore seems to be taking steps backward, packing their line-up with old-timers and the dreadful Corey Patterson, whose ineffectiveness doomed the Cubs last year. They will be passed by the Devil Rays, who keep on producing talented youngsters but who can't amass enough wins when a quarter of their games are against the Yanks and Red Sox. The Blue Jays could improve dramatically if they get full seasons out of Roy Halladay, Gustavo Chacin and the moody A.J. Burnett, whose snit in last season's final week cost my Rotisserie Team the championship. Boston's chances hedge on a the arms of Schilling, Josh Beckett and Keith Foulke. Coco Crisp should be an capable replacement for Johnny Damon, and the Ortiz/Ramirez combo should be as powerful as ever. As for my Yankees, their starting pitching, despite the ages of Ugly Tall Lefty and Mike Mussina, seems more solid than it did last season, as does their middle relief. The offense is also more potent than last Spring, when they stumbled out of the gate. A stronger Giambi, Robinson Cano and Johnny Damon help solidify a lineup team that began last season with Tino Martinez, Tony Womack and a struggling Bernie Williams. Williams is back in Ruben Sierra's old role, which he can fulfill and serve as a link to the glory days of the '90s. There's no good reason at this juncture to assume they cannot take the division, but because of the talented teams infighting, the Wild Card won't come from here.

The AL Central may be the most improved division, though that advancement really happened last year. The White Sox were extremely lucky in 2005 health-wise and will need all their pistons going to hold off the Indians. Adding Jim Thome to replace Frank Thomas can't hurt, though. Cleveland choked away the Wild Card last September and will have to do something about their relief if they want to stay competitive, despite a brilliantly constructed line-up tht includes Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. The Twins have excellent starting pitching and secret weapons in Nelson Liriano and Scott Baker, but need some power form the likes of Joe Mauer and Justin Mourneau. Both the Tigers, also bragging improved pitching, and the Royals, will be better teams than last year, but somebody has to lose. The top three teams could finish in any combination. To be daring, I'll pick Minnesota to win and the Sox to edge in as the Wild Carders.

Finally, the Angels and As are likely to battle out in the West. It will be a match-up of fine young staffs (well, Oakland's is young). The Angels may have too many question marks in their line-up, as Garrett Anderson, Darrin Erstad and Tim Salmon continue to deteriorate. Chone Figgins' scurrying may not do enough for them. The As have Blanton, Zito, Harden and Haren, and a line-up that has bulked up on power, with Nick Swisher, Milton Bradley, Dan Johnson and Frank Thomas. That should be enough. The Rangers are the Phillies of the southwest, with some strong bats but a mound staff that, though improved in spots, lacks their heart-and-soul Kenny Rogers. Adding Brad Wilkerson was a plus, though, as was subtracting Alfonso Soriano--but they gave up too early on Chris Young. Seattle, with its new Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima, will hope he can communicate with their pitchers (especially the endlessly promising Gil Meche and the endless Jamie Moyer). Adrian Beltre will have to provide considerably more pop, as will Raul Ibanez and Carl Everett, if they are to climb out of the division cellar.

So my cards are on the table. The AL final four will be the Yankees, A's, Twins and White Sox.