Out Like Mike Lamb

I was having my weekly conversation with my elderly mother, who is enduring a boring senescence in a retirement project in Maryland. She reports life as hum-drum at best. But when I mentioned that the baseball season was about to begin, I could hear her voice perk up measurably. "Oh, that's good!" she piped, and readied herself for a diet of Orioles, Nationals and Yankees to burst her monotony.

Like her, I am always brightened by the prospect of the new season, however disappointing the old one was. Since my last blog entry I've been studying up on all the players in preparation for another two-pronged Fantasy season, in person and on the Internet. Accordingly, this blog will not be about AIG, the stupid Republicans or Obama's disappointing put-down of the perfectly swell idea of legalizing pot. It will be my official projection for the MLB season. So, Terry and Alan, if you've been waiting, here it is.

It's a pity that the three best teams in baseball are all in the same division. No matter how I look at them, Tampa seems really loaded--young, mostly healthy pitching, and a great core of young hitters to which they added Pat Burrell, Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler. A possible Achilles heel is their aging closers, which may leave them a step behind the Red Sox. I sorta hate the Red Sox, but also admire them as well, and their starting staff this year is fabulous. Clay Buchholz as the #6 pitcher and John Smoltz as #7, along with Papelbon and Saito in relief make them my favorites to go all the way. Some of the line-up is creaky and there's no Manny, but they have terrific gamers in Youkilis ZAnd especially Pedroia. As for the Yankees, they have uped their stock a bit, but there are too many post-30s oldsters on their line-up to propel them past their competition. Toronto has lost most of their staff to injuries and free agency, and Baltimore has one good winning streak in them but will be overwhelmed by the giants in the division.

In the Central time zone, it's always some team that rises from mediocrity in the best-balanced division. Last year the White Sox got the jump; I believe this year it will be the Indians, with Sizemore and Peralta both in their peaks, and Victor Martinez back from his injuries. Or it could be the usually competent Twins, with strong pitching, but an ailing Joe Mauer that could wreck them up the middle. The Tigers are like the Yankees but without a rotation, even if Verlander recovers from last year's disaster. And the Royals will be far from an embarassment, as Jacobs, Aviles, and Gordon could gel nicely, along with a competent pitching staff. They will make noise.

It's a bit trendy to pick Oakland over the Angels in the West, now that they've added Matt Holiday and Jason Giambi, but they also have pitching woes, especially with the talented but fragile Justin Duchscherer again on the DL wagon. The Angels still have the strongest line-up, though Mike Scoscia will have to bring along all his wounded hurlers along very carefully. The Rangers, as usual, will score a lot of runs with Kinsler, Hamilton, Blalock and wunderkind Chris Davis, but their best hurler is Vincent Padilla, and that is sad. In Seattle, the Mariners have, with Felix Hernandez, Eric Bedard and Brandon Morrow, the best pitching in the West, but a lamentable offense. Even Ichiro cannot go on forever.

As for the National League, the big question is will it ever win another All-Star Game? I find it ironic that for all the consecutive wins the American League has achieved, it still hasn't resulted in a seventh-game home advantage in the World Series. In fact, all the World Series, since 2002, have been incredibly dull. And that includes the weird WBC tournaments, the "real" world series.

There is a lot of potential for some upset divisio nwinners this year in that topsy-turvy league. For instance, the Braves, having sat out the play-offs for several years (thankfully silencing the "tomahawk chop" during October), could be rebuilding sufficiently to return to the post-season. With Javy Vazquez and Kenshin Kurakami they have forsaken the Mike Hampton school of overaged hurlers, and have revamped their line-up with young players. The Mets are always in the picture, having overcompensated for their relief woes from last year by buying two of the best AL closers from last season, FRod and Putz. They still have a strong offense and it's said that the new Citifield is a hitter's park. But who stands behind Johan Santana in their rotation? It's not pretty. Likewise, the Phils cannot get by forever with the likes of Jamie Moyer, who is approaching my Mom's age. They're a good team who lucked out last year because of the failings of others. Yeah, they won the World Series, but they wouldn't have made the post-season without the failure of the Mets' bullpen. Florida and Washington will be better this season, especially the Nationals with the maturing of their young outfielders, but there's not a lot of depth there. The Marlins are strong in pitching but if anything happens to Hanley Ramirez there's no sufficient punch.

The up-and-coming power in the Central this year is Cincinnati, with the improvement of their staff with Volquez and Cueto, and of their line-up with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. It probably won't be good enough to beat the Cubs, who are still loaded. But if anything happens to Carlos Zambrano, it will be another sour ending for the Cubbie fans. And some of the mainstays, like Derek Lee and even Soriano, may start to show some age. The Cardinals will benefit from the reemergence of Chris Carpenter on their staff, but they are not very deep otherwise. There's definitely pop in the line-up with Pujols, Ludwick, and Ankiel and Duncan, but onless Wainwright and Wellemeyer can keep them in games, they will not fare well. There seems a definite drop to the other three teams. The Brewers have a few great hitters but lost Sabathia and Sheets so they will struggle. The less said about Houston and Pittsburgh, the better.

In the generally awful NL West, the only stand-out feature is the starting staff of the Giants, which rivals that of any of the AL East teams. With Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and Randy Johnson, they will always be competitive. Their young hitters, though, like Sandoval, Burris and Ishikawa, may not provide enough offense to get them past Arizona and the Dodgers. Joe Torre's team, oddly, has a terrific line-up but a very shaky, un-Dodgerlike rotation. Manny Ramirez will continue to devour NL pitching and can drive in Furcal and Orlando Hudson all day. But unless youngsters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw can perform up to expectations--and they are very very green--the Giants could pull off an upset. But Arizona seems to have the best blalanced tsquad and can never be counted out; expect Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Justin Upton to contribute well, and if Max Scherzer does what is expected, they should end up on top. I don't see any hope for the Padres. They simply have to rebuild. Sorry.

Ergo my picks for this season: In the AL, Boston, Cleveland and the Angels, with Tampa as the wild card. In the NL, Atlanta, Chicago and Arizona, with the Mets as the wild card. I'm just glad that, unlike in the Rotisserie Leagues, I don't actually have to put any money on my predictions.