Baseball Business

It's April, and for its first "Talk of the Town" item this month the New Yorker eschewed more political analysis for a column devoted to baseball by Roger Angell. No matter that the issue was that overblown bug-a-boo, the steroid scandal. It was just a pleasure to read anything by Angell, the most poetic baseball writer ever, the Vin Scully of sports scribes. As for the steroid issue, I am like most baseball fans, disapproving of the behavior but not into the indignation declaimed by Congress and the moralists of the country (and basically anyone who doesn't like baseball in the first place and has this issue to promote their disdain).

To everyone I say, Get a Grip. Yes, it is cheating. Yes, the records are suspect. Yes, these guys used available additives to promote their entertainment value. Hey, it's America. In other arenas of entertainment similar artificial shortcuts are often used for advancement. Ever hear of the casting couch? And I bet no starlet will ever be brought before the House to testify about boffing her way to a starring role.

With that said, and finding myself in the midst of my own baseball frenzy, I'll continue with my seasonal ruminations. It's Fantasy as well as Reality baseball season, and I participated in my annual Bronx Cheers auction on Sunday (hint: we're not going to vie for the title this year). I've also decided, just for laughs, to participate in another auction, over the Internet, to hedge my bets. That event occurs tonight. Needless to say I am still poring over player's list and hourly Internet reports about injuries (for instance, no Pedro Martinez for me...)

So for Alan and Terry and any more of my knowing handful of readers, I'll wander off that topic into my prognostications for this year. I did pretty well last year, except for selecting the Reds to win their division. Ironically, some folks choose them to overtake the Cubs this year, in what is a very competitive, if really lame, division. The Cubs have a very strong offense, now including the hazardous-to-pronounce Fukudome, but their starting staff is worrisome, especially now that Carlos Zambrano's health is in question. Any team that needs to turn Rick Dempster into a starter is on shaky ground. Poor Lou Piniella, who never does well with pitchers. My choice in that division is Milwaukee, whose starters are very promising (go Gallardo!) and who has some great young talent, Hart and Fielder and Weeks. Houston has appalling pitching as well, and it's almost tragic to see how quickly the Cardinals have fallen. They may even bypass a game Pittsburgh team on the way down to the cellar. Well, too bad, Redbirds. That's the reverse karma for all the luck you had in the 2006 play-offs. Kind of how the Yanks still pay for their lucky run with events like a midge convention up Joba Chamberlain's nose.

The NL West is actually mostly talented, with one awful team, the Bondless and Zito'ed Giants. In Los Angeles, Joe Torre will try to keep the peace in a line-up where the young players are pushing the veterans out like adult teeth breaking the gum line. Lack of pitching depth should prevent them from moving up in the West against the pitching-rich Padres and the Twin Towers of Colorado and Arizona. San Diego will not be a play-off team because their lame line-up and Trevor Hoffman's capacity to choke as he did last October in the playoff playoff game against the Rockies. As for the Rockies, they are certainly a loaded team and would run away with the Central Division, but may not be able to overcome the pitching of Arizona, with Webb and Haren. But those young Arizona hot shots like Drew and Conor Jackson need to step it up.

I was inclined to pick the Braves in the NL East because of the pop at the heart of their order, but then a look at their rotation made we wonder about when they'd all start receiving their invitations to AARP. Glavine, Smoltz, Hampton, Hudson--you'd think it was 1998. Bobby Cox must feel like he's a perpetual loop of deja-vu. Neither of their other competitors, the Mets or Phillies, have great depth in their front five (or front four for that matter). But the Mets have the embarrassing memory of their 2007 el foldo to erase, and the Phils have a top of the order--Rollins, Victorino, Utley and Howard--that is unworldly and a Fantasy treasure trove.
I'll give the nod to the Phillies, if Hamels stays healthy all year. (Full disclosure, this choice was made after reading about Pedro's early-season injury; yesterday I might have chosen the Mets). Washington will give some teams fits but will not sustain itself, and Florida has a bad stadium and only Hanley Ramirez.

There are no bad divisions in the American League, and only one bad team. Sorry, Baltimore. Can someone pry that franchise away from Peter Angelos before all the Oriole fans start donning Nationals caps? This is the season the Tampa Bay Rays, having been literally exorcised of the Devil, start to see dividends on some of their investments. It's not just the maturation of Pena, Crawford and Upton at the same time, but the bolstering of the pitching staff with Jamie Shields, last year's comer, and Matt Garza in a trade from the Twins. (Go Garza, he's a Bronx Cheer). Still, the Rays can only climb as high as third, duking it out with a quality but unspectacular Toronto team that depends too heavily on veteran players like Frank Thomas and Shane Stewart.

Then there is the Yankees-Boston 2008 Brawl, which ought to be a good one. These are probably the two best teams in baseball, containing the same elements of talented youngsters, hot-shot starters and wily temperamental veterans. There's no reason they should not finish one-two in the division and probably fight each other in the ALCS to cap off Yankee Stadium the Revision's final season. Their order of finish will depend on pitching health and whose youngsters, Buchholz and Lester vs. Hughes and Kennedy, will be most successful. Two features that the Yanks have this year that may give them an edge are a motivated new manager and Joba Chamberlain. The road to Rivera will be a lot smoother this year.

At first glance the Tigers seems overpowering with the addition of Miguel Cabrera, but at second consideration, it's offense is no stronger than the Yankees', and the Tigers have muich thinner pitching, especially in the bull pen. No team ever seems to repeat in this division, as comparable strength and the vicissitudes of luck through the season always seem to benefit one franchise or the other. But Minnesota is too undermanned in pitching and offense, and though it will be pesky like the Marlins, it won't get far. Kansas City is following the same path as Tampa Bay, with good youngsters and improved arms, but can't quite get over the hump. The White Sox are not replacing their 2005 veterans swiftly enough, and make dumb moves like choosing Crede over Josh Fields, so they're consigned to third. I'll let the Indians grab another title, because of the tandem of Sabathia and Carmona, though the early injury to Victor Martinez is not the best omen.

Pretty much everyone's choice in the NL West is Seattle, thanks to the addition of Erik Bedard to a staff formerly headed by wunderkind Felix Hernandez, and the reliable and engagingly named J.J. Putz. Their staff now towers over that of the Angels, with Escobar maybe out for the year, Lackey struggling to recover his strength, and Ervin Santana hanging out to make Rotisserie owners crazy. As well-managed as that team is, this is a lot to overcome. But lest the Mariner fans get smug, remember it is a long season, pitchers eventually recover, and Erik Bedard rarely makes it through a year without breaking down. Oakland seems as much of a non-factor this year as the Giants, having given up their best pitcher for whomever, and Billy Beane's insight will have to wait a few years to justify itself. the Rangers are the Ranges, a team most desperately in need of a domed air-conditioned ballpark. Otherwise they are always bound to wilt in August.

Whew. This has been a long commentary. Not as long as the four hours I will spend tonight on the Internet interfacing with a metallic-voiced auctioneer, but voluminous for me. Summarizing then, my official choices are Milwaukee, Arizona, and the Phils in the NL, with the wild card Rockies; and the Yanks, Indians and Mariners with the Red Sox joining the show. Way too early for a World Series pick (which I never get right anyway), but at this juncture I predict the Yanks and the Brewers.