September Sprint

As the college and pro football seasons begin, the clamor of the media's trumpeting of America's Game nearly deafens us to the dramatic flourish of the end of the baseball season. (Okay, did I manage not to mix any metaphors?) Aside from the weird upset of Michigan by Appalachian State, and Oklahoma's savage beating of two teams--scoring nearly 130 points to avenge their Fiesta Bowl upset by Boise State--there's nothing much notable about the pigskin parade. But baseball is offering its dwindling adherents the fun of the season-ending sprint to the playoffs.

Only a few teams have a clear path to the play-offs. They are the Angels, whose challenge by a clearly weaker Mariner team has collapsed in a dreadful slump, the Indians, and the New York Mets. The Mets lead the division by six games, and the Angels by eight, and with those margins and less than twenty games to go, even Gene Mauch could not blow the division championships. The Red Sox have a fairly meaningful five-game lead over the Yanks and can stretch it in the upcoming series at Fenway. That rivalry is so intense that one can expect either team to sweep. If the Red Sox do it they can heavily damage the Yanks' chances for a Wild Card spot, as the Yanks did last year to the Red Sox in Boston Massacre II.

The only competitive race now in the American League is between the Tigers and Yanks for the fourth play-off spot. The Wild Card used to be a joke, but now it not only provides added interest to also-rans, but often provides World Series participants. Two Florida teams, and the Red Sox have won the title as Wild Card entrants, and others, like Houston, the Mets and the Tigers, have won pennants. The Yanks hold a four-game lead at this moment, with a slight disadvantage in home/away meetings, but the Yanks' schedule is all lesser AL east teams aside from Boston, while the Tigers still have to meet the Indians and the Twins a lot. The Tigers' pitching, which carried them very far last year until those same hurlers forgot how to throw to first base, is less assured now. Bonderman is weak, Andrew Miller inconsistent, and an elderly Kenny Rogers wheezing through his starts. The Yanks have been fortified by decent starts from youngsters Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy and the spirited relief work of Joba Chamberlain, so that even if their veterans Mussina and Clemens are struggling, they should probably have enough. Not to beat the Angels in the post-season, but at least to make an appearance. And to give Arod one last chance for October achievement after a career year of magnificent, almost effortless clutch hitting, so he can charge his next team 30 million a year for his services.

The focus of competitive interest this month is in the senior circuit, which still could be represented by any four of nine teams. The Phils are hanging in behind the Mets and have gotten their offense back, with Utley and Victorino back in shape. But they have to climb over the other Wild Card rivals from the Western Division. The Dodgers and Colorado are trailing Arizona and/or San Diego by a few games, and the log-jam there may help the Phillies as the western team slay each other off. Right now it looks like a photo finish between the Diamondbacks and the Padres, with the loser getting the Mets in the first round.

Then there's the absurd NL Central, with Milwaukee, the Cubs and the Cardinals virtually tied. History suggests that the experience of the Cardinals will eventually win out despite their questionable pitching, with the offensive addition of previous starter and likely steroid abuser Rick Ankiel bolstering their formerly anemic offense. The Cubs are the obvious sentimental choice, and the young Brewers are likable for their stubbornness to fold a la Seattle. My original pick for the division, Cincinnati, just didn't have it, but I'm sticking with St. Louis by a game after a very exciting final weekend.

In the end though, I've said it again and again--the Mets should win the World Series. They even have Pedro back, along with a healthy Moises Alou, great speed at the top of their line-up, and an MVP in David Wright. Add to this Carlos Beltran, who thrives in October, and a steady reliever in Billy Wagner, and all the ingredients are there. Only freakish luck should prevent their defeat of either Boston or Los Angeles in late October.