The Runs of August

This has been an entertaining baseball season, and as we vault into the August stretch period the competitive division races must take an obvious backseat to the spectacle of Barry Bonds' assault on Hank Aaron's home run record. I remember viewing Aaron's 715th homer off Al Downing in 1974, and Mark McGwire's shot in 1998 overtaking Roger Maris. Like for all fans there is nearly a spiritual significance of breaking home run records that compels one to witness. Last week I made every effort to view Bonds' at bats, as well as Arod's as he tried for number 500 in his career. For six days I watched, then on Saturday could not view either event, because of a blackout of the Yankee game and an evening out. Of course it was then that both milestones, Arod's 500 and Bonds' matching of Aaron's 755, were met. Sigh. But I'll be viewing tonight as Bonds returns to San Francisco. Luckily there's nothing else on TV.

I'm tired of all the breast-beating over Bonds' steroid use. Yeah, yeah, it's cheating, sure, but the issue has become about as boring as Lindsay Lohan's latest DUI. Without steroids Bonds probably would not be at this point, but it is also conceivable that he would have reached the record anyway in a year or two. Besides he's had far fewer ABs than Aaron did, so comparisons, being odious, can go on forever. Bonds is obnoxious, sure, but aren't most ball players? Anyway, Arod is likely to pass him in six years or so, and then look out for Ryan Howard.

Back to the season, which is two-thirds over now, with terrifically tight races in all but one division. That is the AL East, where the Red Sox have maintained their sizable lead over the Yanks and Blue Jays. The margin is likely to persist because of shrewed pitching moves. Schilling is returning, Dice-K has been decent, but the relief troika of Okajima, Papelbon and the newly acquired Eric Gagne should preserve most late inning leads.

I had my doubts earlier but it seems the Yanks have righted the ship sufficiently to sneak in as a Wild Card. They have sailed through the easy section of their schedule and have caught up to the other Wild Card contenders, the Indians, Mariners and Tigers. If the Yanks can navigate through the upcoming turbulence of eight games with Detroit and three with Cleveland and Los Angeles with a split, they will be in good shape. The rest of the season will be against Eastern teams, while Detroit and Cleveland must face each other, a possibly resurgent Twins, and the frustrated but talented White Sox. Seattle is the wild card in the Wild Card, but the Yankees' pitching has gelled, and the additions of Betemit, Duncan and Giambi have fortified the bench.

It's too tight to call the winner of the Central Division, but the Tigers still seem to have the strongest team, and need to bolster their bullpen a bit to recover. Their current slump is an anomaly and they will be back soon. Cleveland's starting pitching is suspect, with Lee and Sowers big disappointments. And don't count out the Twins, whose starters Garza and Baker may be maturing quickly enough to support Santana et al. And the Twins are historically a great second-half team.

Oakland is also set for a surge, but it won't be enough to overcome the Angels, despite some pitching hiccups, notably the failure of Ervin Santana. Just too much talent in Anaheim, and a great manager. Who know about Seattle? They are getting better but seem to be doing it all with mirrors. So at this juncture the my bets would be on Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles and the Yankees. Hey, isn't that what I said in April?

Now we'll get to what my friend Terry is waiting for breathlessly. Congrats on the rise of the D-backs, Terry. Granted they are in a mediocre division, but they are an agreeably aggressive young team with a hopeful future. The difference in their performance this year, though, is not from their offense but in their relief pitching, where Jose Valverde has established himself as reliable rather than the volatile mess he was last season. The Padres are their closest competition thanks to superb starting (Peavy and Young are the best one-two in baseball, so watch out if they get into the play-offs). I have a soft spot for Colorado, the one team in the division not to have won in this century, but it's not likely to happen here. And the Dodgers simply do not have enough offensive punch to overcome the injuries to their staff. You may write nasty notes to me, Terry, but I think at this juncture that the Padres will sneak past Arizona, though I wouldn't throw money at the thought.

The best race may be in the Central, where the Cubs are about to overtake the Brewers. I think the Brewers have suffered a bit from incompetent managing by Ned Yost and some awful set-up relievers like the dreadful Derrick Turnbow. Just yesterday the relief corps blew a five-run lead in the ninth. Add the injury to Ben Sheets and the decline of Chris Capuano and I can't see them withstanding the run of the rejuvenated Cubs. Chicago has lost Soriano for a while, but they have another terrific one-two punch in Zambrano and Hill, a lot of good hitters and an experienced Lou Piniella. I'm not counting out the Cardinals, but they seem flaccid offensively and sorely in need of a healthy Chris Carpenter, which ain't gonna happen till 2009. This is a really poor division, though--worse even than the NL West--and any team can collapse. I do have to apologize for my pre-season pick of the Reds. I thought they might slide in as the best of the worst, rather than the worst of the worst.

I'm still holding onto my World Series pick of the Mets, which means they have to qualify. If Pedro Martinez returns in some style in September they probably will withstand any surges by the Phillies and the improved Braves. Two of these teams will qualify for the post-season, and the Phils have been handicapped by the injury to Utley, but I still think they will sneak in after just missing the past few seasons. Mark Texeira's addition to the Braves gives them a formidable line-up but their starters are iffy and Smoltz is so, so old.

Ergo, my NL picks are the Mets, Cubs, Padres and Phils--not exactly what I foresaw in April, but frankly, with all but a few of the NL teams, you can pick their names out of a hat or have a monkey throw darts at a board to choose the winners. That's what parity brings. But it makes for a pleasantly competitive final stretch, and we will have to watch something after Bonds completes his dirty work.