Horsehide Hang-ups

There's trouble in the world of baseball, my favorite bailiwick. The institution is giving me a hard time this spring, erecting roadblocks to my usual enjoyment, and that doesn't even include the continued presence of Arod on the Yankees. First, Major League Baseball has signed an exclusive deal for televising their baseball package tthrough Direct TV, leaving leaves poor cable fiends like myself out in the cold. Then, when I studied the possibility of subscribing to the web cast program, I ran into weird problems accessing the video feed--problems someone with a limited technical prowess such as myself can find overwhelmingly frustrating. And then the owner of the Dodgers decided to raise parking fees at Dodger Stadium commensurate with ticket price hikes, and they didn't even get a good free agent to justify the new costs. Phooey, and shit.

Although it would seem a good time to ignore the entire institution, hey, I'm still hooked, and this is the week preceding the Rotisserie Auction and the Opening Game, both occurring on April Fool's Day. Accordingly I have been doing a substantial amount of poring over team rosters and statistics from magazines and baseball web sites and acquainting myself with the likes of Chris Ianetta and Akinora Owamura. My Roto partner and I are intent, for our own pride at least, to be more competitive in the Auction and Fantasy season than we were last year, when we overspent on a few good players and ended up throwing darts at a board of eight or nine one-dollar misfits, none of whom panned out. Since we tend to do well in alternate years, I am guardedly optimistic about our chances.

But as a fan of The Real Game, as I study the rosters, I am becoming convinced that this will likely be the year that the Yankees will be dethroned as perennial division champs, as the Braves were last year (though their collapse won't be as catastrophic with that lineup). Brian Cashman did a good job restocking the team's farm system with young arms, but I'm afraid that what remains this season, after the departure of the disappointing Randy Johnson, the trading of Jaret Wright, and the plane crash of Cory Lidle, are several injury risks and a second-choice Japanese import. Mussina and Pettitte are stalwarts but beyond their prime; Pavano is a cry-baby, Wang and Karstens are injured already and Kei Igawa has command problems.

Yeah, Phil Hughes and Roger Clemens remain in the wings, and they will be summoned, but I think this is the season the Yank's championship hopes fall between the cracks of the Old pitching Guard and the New. The beneficiaries will be, sigh, Boston, who also has some aged pitching but will get enough out of Beckett, Matsusake and Schilling--with Papelbon back in the pen--to win the title. Toronto has a talented team as well, and Baltimore's pitching is about to blossom (unfortunately as their line-up--Markakis excepted--begins to fade). Tampa Bay has too much flux to cope with the powerhouses in this division.

The AL Central is also stocked with capable teams, anyone of which could leap to the top as the Tigers did last year. Okay, maybe not Kansas City, but with young stars like Alex Gordon, Ryan Shealy and Mark Teahen, they will not embarrass themselves. The Twins' loss of Francisco Liriano may prove fatal in this competitive mix. Cleveland is underrated after some of their sophs slumped last year, but they should perform well, as should the White Sox with their potent sluggers. But I am willing to pick the Tigers to repeat; their pitching is still strong, and they've added Gary Sheffield and subtracted Dmitri Young from a youthful line-up that could still improve.

If Rich Harden pitches an entire season, the Oakland team ought to be able to squeak by again the West, though the usual suspects, the Angels, could surge if their young players like Kendrick and Kotchman fulfill their potential. Texas is still trying to find the right formula, and Sammy Sosa could surprise as a comeback candidate, but their pitching is still suspect. And the Mariners are sorely in need of punch; their line-up is almost as listless as that of the Nationals or the Giants in the Inferior--I mean, National--League.

Speaking of which, the Opening Game of the season pits the Mets against the Cardinals, as did the last (and thrilling) game of the National League in 2006. Both teams now are suffering from the same problem that nettled them in October, a dearth of reliable starting pitching. The Mets won't have Pedro until sometime in July at best, and dull but reliable Steve Trachsel is gone (to the Orioles!). Unless ancient El Duque and young 'uns Mike Pelfrey and John Maine can perform, that wonderful offense, led by the amazing Jose Reyes, might be insufficient for another October ticket. Conventional wisdom--or whatever comes out of the mouthes of web site pundits--has picked the Phillies to win, thanks to their Rollins/Utley/Howard beefcake and some good young arms. It's hard to argue with that, since neither the Braves, in a rebuilding year, and the Nationals, a sad sack of a team, will provide no competition. Only the unpredictable Marlins, with fine young pitchers and a nucleus of hungry day players, could change the dynamics of the division. Hard call, but I'll go with the Phillies too, since they are due for some good luck.

I suppose the Cardinals will make a good run again, but will really need the help of Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes to fend off the other challengers. The Brewers are intriguing, but I think their offense is a year away, and despite some good front-line pitching, they are questionable in the relief area. Houston has some nice punch now that they've added Carlos Lee, but the bottom half of their line-up blows, and they'll have neither Pettitte nor Clemens to help lead a second-half surge as in previous seasons. The Cubs will be hitting a lot of homers and will be the funnest team in the league, with addition Soriano, a healthy Derek Lee, and underrated star Aramis Ramirez. But Prior and Kerry Wood are hobbling and only Rich Hill seems capable of backing up Zambrano in the rotation. Pittsburgh is the Kansas City of this group. Which is why, against all logic, I am selecting Cincinnati to win.

Finally there is the NL West, which many have conceded to the Dodgers, thanks to a good starting five and a shitload of promising rookies like Loney and Kemp. I find the Rockies perhaps the most intriguing of dark horses, with some very fine hitters, but that weird Coors air has a habit of discouraging pitchers, and Colorado does not have so great a staff to begin with. Arizona does have good pitching (hi, Terry), and Tall Ugly Lefty may have a little left in his tank--but they'll need more pop from the likes of Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson. The offense cannot rely solely on Erich Byrnes. As for the Giants, no one wants to see Barry Bonds break Hank Aaron's record. There's a pall over the entire ballpark this season, and even a revived AT&T will not lighten the murk. Barry has no one to protect him, and I'm not just talking about whoever is batting fourth. They've a lame offense and, although the addition of Barry Zito will help, it probably won't enable them to move higher than fourth in a rather mediocre race. I'll go with the Dodgers, since I'm only allowed one irreverent pick.

So there you go, with my choices--Boston, Detroit, Oakland, Philadelphia, Cincinnati and the Dodgers. The Yanks may sneak into the Wild Card (which might do them good), and so will St. Louis. As for the Bronx Cheers--well they haven't been constructed yet, but a top-four finish is likely.