Last Chance Before We Forget

I'm entering the Oscar frenzy really, really, late. It's very distracting, as I live in the heart of Oscar country, and a neighboring region has been cordoned off with Extreme Security, making the usually difficult traffic patterns even more forbidding. There aren't as many hovering coptors as in past years, but I'm sure they'll appear tomorrow, along with the ubiquitous blimp. I guess for all the inconvenient hoopla, I do not give a damn. Been there, done that. (Well okay, I've only been outside the Kodak, and I did the Emmys, not the Oscars. But this isn't about me.)

I haven't done my year-end movie reviews or speculations thereof and when anyone of my three remaining readers happens upon this entry I'm sure it will be after-the-fact. Be assured, though, that these will not be hindsight prognostications. I normally can predict accurately at least four of the six major awards, but a few of the categories are very competitive, and I really haven't more than a vague sense of which movie will win the Best Picture.

Probably the only shoo-in this year is Helen Mirren, who occupied the character of Elizabeth so persuasively you could swear the Queen was limning herself. Yeah, Judy Dench was good in a histrionic villainess role, as was Meryl Strep, more subtly. But they've won and Helen hasn't, and Helen is pretty cool. Forrest Whitaker as Idi Amin took most of the prior acting awards for his equally (to Mirren's) depiction of a modern plitical figure, and deserves to win. Whether there will be enough Old School sentiment for Peter O'Toole will decide which of these guys walks to the podium. So does O'Toole win (essentially for his iconic roles in 1960's epics) while playing a character very much like himself? Hope not.

The most competitive acting category is the Supporting Male, and Eddie Murphy is the favorite and probable winner. Comic actors playing dramatic characters who die (even offscreen) get brownie points, and his singing was very good. Sentiment might go to Alan Arkin in a showy semi-demented role in "Miss Sunshine," though probably the most compelling performance was Jackie Earl Haley as the self-loathing child molester in "Little Children." Then there was Mark Wahlberg with his extreme Boston accent (apparently native to him) who was pretty fine in "The Departed." Any of these could be a deserving winner. I'd expect Murphy to win, but I'd choose Haley. And Jennifer Hudson with that anthem (now used by her clone LaKisha Jones on this year's "American Idol") provided an emotional cinematic highlight, which should get her the award, though Adriana Barraza of "Babel" made the strongest impact. Barraza's vote might be split with Rinku Kikuchi, her co-featured-star, which makes it easier for Hudson. It's a shame Cate Blanchett will be eclipsed for her strong gig in "Notes on a Scandal," but she's won already.

The fact the "Dreamgirls," an entertaining but overrated feature, was not included among the best picture nominees, will probably benefit Murphy and Hudson, who will receive compensatory recognition.

I don't have any strong preferences in any category, but I will feel bad if somehow the Academy overlooks (or in this case, really does snub) Marty Scorsese. "Departed," though overlong, was a strong effort, and if nothing else, let's give him credit for the trnascendent "Goodfellas."

The Foreign film category also has some terrific entries this year, though I was not as impressed by "Pan's Labyrinth" as the rest of the world. It was just too despairing for me, and I left the theater feeling like throwing myself under an MTA bus. To be fair, I was also equally appalled by the nihilism at the end of "Chinatown," but that has resonated for decades. So "Pan" will probably win. I would cast my vote, though, for the German film "The Lives of Others," which was also set in an oppressive milieu but was uplifting in its view of the possibilities of redemption. That film had one of the best endings of a movie since Woody Allen's "Manhattan," and left the audience in the Writer's Guild Theater leaping to uncharacteristically thunderous applause.

"Little Miss Sunshine," an amiable but very unlikely comedy, has been overpraised probably because of its independent status and "Little Engine that Could" history. Something like the cinematic equivalent of Natural Food. Some have speculated it could win Best Picture, but I don't think it has the depth or scope of an Oscar winner. But it's likely to cop Best Original Screenplay.

Of the other four entries for Best Picture, my favorite is "The Queen," which managed to move me in unexpected ways both emotional and intellectual. "The Departed" was something between Grand Opera and Grand Guignol, but powerfully told. "Letters from Iwo Jima" was very moving as well, and part of a rather amazing double-feature achivement by Clint Eastwood, who now appears to deserve all the praise lavished on him. But I suspect, in the end, the power and sturm und drang of "Babel" might squeak it by its competition. The Academy likes gravitas, especially of the multicultural variety, as witnessed by last year's "Crash."

I wish everyone well, and tht no bombs go off, and that the streets clear by Monday afternoon.
And by Tuesday no one will remember who won.