Capping the Dems

Hard to believe, but there are still two full years to go of the Bush administration. It's like an endless migraine, or like sitting through Terence Malick's "The New World." But some of the pain will be mitigated by our hope for a better replacement and the distraction that the very long political campaign will bring us.

With a year to go before the first primaries--which will be held in Iowa or New Hampshire or Nevada, whichever state needs the ego boost most desperately--the Democrats already have a bevy of candidates with either quality experience or star power. The same can be almost said of the Republicans, but they have wasted the past six years and put our country in jeopardy with their reactionary policies, so fuck 'em. Political pundits are already handicapping the race, which is almost like setting odds on the Kentucky Derby for colts that were sired last month. So much can happen in the fourteen months before the candidates are determined, and the six months after that, that it's generally a waste of time to speculate. But there are reasons for optimism.

There is legitimate excitement over the probable candidacy of Barack Obama. The man is brilliant, likable, delivers deep stentorian oratory, and of course is of mixed race, which means in America, black. How much his African heritage will effect his chances is a major issue, but it's likely that anyone who would vote against him on the basis of race would vote against him anyway on the basis of his liberal Democratic stances. The same logic applies to those African Americans who would vote for him. He is charismatic and a fresh face, though after his overexposure by a Bushwhacked press, he will become extremely familiar. Senator Biden referred to him as "clean," and though I interpreted that to mean that he had a clean record, others thought it was an insult to African Americans as being "dirty." It's amazing how negatively people want to construe every word uttered by politicians, which means that even as savvy a fellow as Barry will use some language in the next eighteen months to rattles some cages. His greatest problem would be peaking too soon.

But I can't but think that an Obama presidency would be an asset, especially in reestablishing ties with other nations that have been so strained by the Bush Imperial Arrogance. The argument against Obama, that he has too little experience, can be contradicted by two points--Lincoln had just as little experience, and Bush has set the bar so low that even my dog would seem more qualified. I hope he wins.

But then there's Hillary, bright and determined, with the power of the Democratic fund machine behind her, and all the White House experience one could ask of someone who has never been President. The issue of her polarizing personality is a valid one, though, as well as her gender, which could be a determining factor in the toss-up states. It's fascinating to watch Hillary field questions in interviews. She is undoubtedly as smart a politician as exists, but the mental calculation of every word that comes out of her mouth is so evident you can practically see the machinery working in her cerebrum, like in an old Anacin commercial. Her success will rest largely on how many people yearn for the old Clinton presidency, and will be voting for her as a sort of high-end surrogate for Bill. I'd suggest she make it clear what Bill's place would be in a Hillary administration, and that ought to be as Secretary of State. Again, his presence as an American foreign minister would be welcome in international circles, where he was very popular.

The least divisive candidate would be No. 3 going in, who is John Edwards. He has a Kennedy charm and a clear disavowal of any Iraqi war responsibility, and comes from a southern state, which seems necessary for a Democrat nowadays who needs an extra electoral advantage. He also has national profile thanks to his Vice Presidential run in 2004, although I thought he cam across as something of a lightweight. He is the weakest of the three top candidates but also the least controversial and would probably have fewer negatives going into a general election.

Joe Biden is finally making a big push, but I believe he had his day earlier, before he had his hair transplants. Now he has gravitas and an important role on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from which to suggest policy adjustments. His Senate experience is undeniable, but he is still capable of shooting carelessly from the hip, as with the Obama statement. He should know better, since an earlier Presidential campaign was torpedoed by a charge of plagiarism from a speech by a British MP. For some treason that mattered, even though JFK stole "Ask not what your country can do for you" from some earlier wag. I always thoght he'd make an impressive figure as a President, but I think he has an uphill battle to maintain campaign funds after the Big Three make their moves in early primaries.

Governor Bill Richardson is another intriguing candidate, and the only non-Senator of the front-runners. Americans have seemed to prefer gubernatorial experience for their president, so this sits in his favor (as it may for lesser lights like Governor Vilsack). He is also of "mixed" racial heritage, sporting a WASP name but a Latino background. That would help in some of the Western states like Arizona and his own New Mexico, which could tip the scales in a tight electoral race. He was also a cabinet member under Clinton, which will get him a few brownie points. He may not hve the charisma to stay afloat in the race, but would be an ideal Vice Presidential choice.

We're already down to the numbers six and lower, the announced canddiates like Tom Vilsack, and those standing breathlessly on the sidelines like Wesley Clark. Though recent history ahs pointed out that early also-rans lie Carter and Clinton could eventually succeed, they were competing against a much feeblier crowd than Vilsack and Clark would be. Clark's military background would not appear to be so strong as asset as it was four years ago, and the Democrats have learned that elevating a candidate with military experience does not necessarily impress Red Staters, who preferred to believe the Swift Boat Liars than the medals won by John Kerry.

I personally wouldn't mind Al Gore returning to the fray, now that he has rediscovered his personality and may win a Nobel Peace Prize--or at least an Oscar--for his Global Warming campaigning. But he may be smart enough to realize that losing a Presidential race that he actually won was perhaps a signal that his karma lay elsewhere.

Fortunately, we haven't heard yet from Ralph Nader.